The 2000 Watt Society of modern cities
In the newly released IEA 2017 World Energy Outlook “New Policies Scenario”, the global energy needs will rise more slowly than in the past decades but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. The world primary energy consumption will growth from 9 369 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 12 461 Mtoe in 2040. Compared with the past twenty-five years, the way that the world will meet its growing energy needs changes dramatically. In the IEA “New Policies Scenario”, the sources of this growth will be taken by natural gas, by the rapid rise of renewables (wind and solar) and by energy efficiency.
Improvements in efficiency will play a huge role in taking the strain off the supply side: without them, the projected rise in final energy use would more than double. Renewable sources of energy will meet 40% of the increase in primary demand and their explosive growth in the power sector marks the end of the boom years for coal. Coal-fired power generation capacity has grown since 2000 by nearly 900 gigawatts (GW), but net additions from today to 2040 will only be 471 GW. Oil demand will continue to grow to 2040, albeit at a steadily decreasing pace. Natural gas use will rise by 45% to 2040. The outlook for nuclear power has dimmed since last year.
For Renewables, which will capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants to 2040, the rapid deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV), led by China and India, will help solar to become the largest source of low-carbon capacity by 2040, At this date, the share of all Renewables in total power generation will reach 40%. In the European Union, the Renewables will account for 80% of new capacity and wind power will become the leading source of electricity soon after 2030, due to strong growth both onshore and offshore.
Despite this immense addition of Renewables to support the growth in energy consumption, the absolute sources of fossil fuels will remain identical for coal and oil and further grow for Natural Gas and Waste. A special attention will have to be made to air quality and global emissions of all the major pollutants (NOx, SOx, CO2, PM, Hg etc.) as their health & environment impacts remain severe. New environmental policies and pollution control technologies will still to have be applied more widely despite the emissions avoided because of renewable energy sources addition (as with wind and solar) without fuel combustion.
Challenger | Sabine Studer, General Electric
Sabine is Senior Product Manager for Long-term Service Agreements for Power Plants in General Electric. She supports global, cross-functional teams to incubate new commercial offerings to support Power Services customers to stay competitive in challenging market conditions. Before that she was leading Product Promotion for Generator Services & she worked as Tender & Project Manager for Generator Services Projects around the world. She joined Alstom / General Electric as an intern in Human Resources to support the People Development Programs for Technical Experts & Project Managers while completing her Bachelor of Arts in Management at the Université de Fribourg, Switzerland. Sabine has a passion for People Development & supports various initiatives to drive Diversity & Inclusion internally & externally of GE.
Challenger | Alain Bill, General Electric
Alain is Senior Product Manager for the Environmental Control Solutions (ECS) for Power and Industrial Plants in General Electric. He supports – via new products’ introduction and campaigns – GE’s global offering of upgrades and retrofits solutions for its customer to meet more stringent emission regulations.
Before that he has several roles in R&D, Marketing and Product Management, always in the area of environmental control. He also gained experience in operation by leading the services centers in the Northern part of Latin America. He joined Alstom / General Electric as an R&D engineer working in the corporate laboratory on CO2 mitigation projects.